VBQ Speakers caught up with renowned journalist Anne McElvoy for her views on how Trump’s re-election could impact wider geopolitics.
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VBQ: We are living in a moment of huge geopolitical upheaval. How could Trump’s re-election to the White House impact these developments?
AM: Ukraine-Middle East-China: a trio of pain points are inter-related and have far-reaching consequences .
Speaking to some of the key players who may make it big in the Trump administration, they divide between two groups. The first is “Iran first” strategists, who think that all of the big issues in the Middle East flow from Iran and its proxies and that there is no end to the Israel/Gaza crisis without toughening the stance on Tehran and doubling down on support for Israel over Lebanon.
The second group is “China first”, who look much more to Beijing and the risk of conflict in the South China Sea as the significant threat, because it is harder to calculate how China will behave militarily or in a “greyzone” war with the West via technological means and proxies.
No one on team Trump now or prospectively cares much about Ukraine other than as a “deal” to end the war. As a former Moscow correspondent, I doubt it would be very durable: Putin’s view of deals is that they are made to be broken.
In either outcome, a gap is opening between European desire to extract deals from China on EVs and energy, and a toughening in Washington. That could soon cause tension for the Starmer government, which is keen to keep trade doors open to Beijing as part of his “global Britain” reboot.
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For more information on Anne McElvoy’s speaking topics and availability, contact leo@vbqspeakers.com.
This blog was amended on 8th November 2024 to focus on a Trump administration’s geopolitical outlook.